What to Expect from Mortgage Rates in May 2026

2026 has been an unpredictable year for mortgage rates. Back in February, things were looking up for homebuyers. The average 30-year mortgage rate dropped to 5.87%, and some well-qualified buyers were getting rates close to 5%. For people who had been waiting years to buy a home, this felt like a real breakthrough.

But the good news didn't last long. When war broke out with Iran, it caused concerns about rising prices across the economy. This pushed mortgage rates back up. By late March, the average 30-year rate had climbed to 6.37%.

Now, as of late April, rates have come back down to around 6%. This drop happened because peace talks regarding the Iran conflict have helped calm financial markets.

What Experts Predict for May

Forecasting mortgage rates is tricky, but here's what experts think could happen in May:

Rates Could Stay About the Same

Most experts believe mortgage rates will stay in the low-to-mid 6% range throughout May. There's no Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for the month, and markets have already accounted for the Fed's latest decision to keep rates unchanged.

Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, expects rates to move between 6.2% and 6.4%, though she warns that things could change quickly. Sarah DeFlorio from William Raveis Mortgage predicts rates will land between 6.125% and 6.25% by the end of May.

Jordan Del Palacio from Churchill Mortgage is a bit less optimistic, suggesting the average 30-year rate could reach around 6.50% by month's end.

Rates Could Go Down

There's a chance rates could fall slightly if peace talks continue to go well and financial markets stay calm. DeFlorio says if a formal end to the Iran conflict is announced, we could see an immediate dip in rates.

Additionally, if upcoming jobs reports show that the economy is cooling down—for example, if unemployment rises or wage growth slows—this could also help push rates lower.

Rates Could Go Up

On the other hand, rates could rise if the situation with Iran gets worse. Higher oil prices caused by the conflict can lead to higher prices throughout the economy, which tends to push mortgage rates up.

Hepp warns that if new inflation data comes in higher than expected, or if the peace talks fall apart, we could see rates jump back toward 6.75% or higher.

What You Can Do

No matter what happens with rates in May, there are steps you can take to get a better deal on your mortgage:

• Shop around: Compare offers from at least three different lenders to find the best rate and terms.
• Lock in your rate: If you're worried about rates going up, consider locking in a rate now. Most lenders offer rate locks for 30, 45, or 60 days.
• Ask about float-down options: Some lenders let you lock your rate but also give you the option to lower it if rates drop before you close on your home.

The key takeaway? Mortgage rates remain unpredictable, but being prepared and staying informed can help you make the best decision for your situation.

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